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MLB DFS is complex. Most articles are about the individual players most likely to succeed, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play. With some help from our Top Stacks tool, we will aim to look more at the process instead of just the picks and the teams instead of just the players. We’ll still analyze the MLB player projections that are available in our MLB optimizer, LineupHQ. However, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.

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Happy weekend! We’ve got a boffo 8-game early slate to talk about on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Pitching looks terrific today with aces all over the place, while we’ve also got a few weaklings worth targeting with bats. The salaries on FanDuel look generally appropriate, but Aaron Nola and Paul Skenes are both under $9,000 on DK for some reason. That’ll make it possible to get the best pitching while also giving us the chance to pay up for some stacks, which could lead to some very concentrated ownership on the best spots.

As always, there are still ways to get different, so let’s figure it all out.

All stats cited are since the start of the 2023 season unless otherwise noted.

MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks for Saturday, June 29th

TOP OFFENSES

Diamondbacks vs. Hogan Harris

Astros at Tylor Megill

Phillies vs. Roddery Munoz

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First thing first: The Phillies would be the chalkiest stack of the day if they were at full strength, but Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber both landed on the IL yesterday. With JT Realmuto already out injured, this is a severely diminished group. With that said, the Phils do still have an implied run total on the right side of 5 runs in a tasty matchup at home against Roddery Munoz.

So the Diamondbacks are actually the team projected to pull the most ownership on both sites. They’ll take their swings at home against lefty Hogan Harris. He’s posted a tidy 2.72 ERA through 7 outings this year, but that 4.49 SIERA tells a different story. He’s only pitched about 36 innings, and he’s been pretty lucky when it comes to stranding runners (81%) and BABIP (.222).

Harris’ 18.9% K rate isn’t scaring anybody, while his walk (8.8%) and barrel (10.5%) rates are on the high side. He’s also allowed 6 homers already, so there’s absolutely nothing sustainable about this ERA. Harris is just a guy out there throwin’ baseballs and hopin’ for the best.

Arizona hasn’t been great offensively this season with key bats like Corbin Carroll and Eugenio Suarez mired in season-long slumps, but there’s still talent here. Ketel Marte (.480 wOBA, 380 ISO, 15.4% barrels) is bashing left-handed pitching, while Christian Walker (17.9% barrels) has been unlucky in the power department (.146 ISO). They’re the core plays in any DBax stack, while Lourdes Gurriel (.395 wOBA) and Blaze Alexander (.392) have very impressive numbers on the year vs. LHP.

I’m still happy to take the savings on Randal Grichuk assuming he draws the start, while Suarez’s track record against lefties is excellent enough to keep me on board despite his 2024 scuffles. I don’t mind throwing Carroll into stacks considering Harris isn’t going to pitch the whole game, but he’s far from a must. Per the projections, however, Arizona is over-owned. Their 7% optimal rate on DK pales in comparison to their 14% pOWN%. It’s a similar story on FD, with 13% pOWN% compared to about an 8% optimal rate.

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